Renewable Energy A Pipe Dream

Engineers who worked on Google’s now abandoned renewable energy project discover that there is no way that current technology can replace fossil fuels in any practical way. They made the interesting discovery that the output of all renewable systems barely exceeds the energy input of constructing them in the first place.

 

If you add that to the research last month that found that it an area the size of the U.K. would have to be given over to wind or solar power every year just to provide renewable energy for the increased energy demand that year, it is obvious that current technology will not provide the clean green world that greenies dream of.

From WUWT:

A research effort by Google corporation to make renewable energy viable has been a complete failure, according to the scientists who led the programme. After 4 years of effort, their conclusion is that renewable energy “simply won’t work”.

According to an interview with the engineers, published in IEEE;

“At the start of RE<C, we had shared the attitude of many stalwart environmentalists: We felt that with steady improvements to today’s renewable energy technologies, our society could stave off catastrophic climate change. We now know that to be a false hope …
Renewable energy technologies simply won’t work; we need a fundamentally different approach.”
http://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/renewables/what-it-would-really-take-to-reverse-climate-change

There is simply no getout clause for renewables supporters. The people who ran the study are very much committed to the belief that CO2 is dangerous – they are supporters of James Hansen. Their sincere goal was not to simply install a few solar cells, but to find a way to fundamentally transform the economics of energy production – to make renewable energy cheaper than coal. To this end, the study considered exotic innovations barely on the drawing board, such as self erecting wind turbines, using robotic technology to create new wind farms without human intervention. The result however was total failure – even these exotic possibilities couldn’t deliver the necessary economic model.

The key problem appears to be that the cost of manufacturing the components of the renewable power facilities is far too close to the total recoverable energy – the facilities never, or just barely, produce enough energy to balance the budget of what was consumed in their construction. This leads to a runaway cycle of constructing more and more renewable plants simply to produce the energy required to manufacture and maintain renewable energy plants – an obvious practical absurdity.

According to the IEEE article;

“Even if one were to electrify all of transport, industry, heating and so on, so much renewable generation and balancing/storage equipment would be needed to power it that astronomical new requirements for steel, concrete, copper, glass, carbon fibre, neodymium, shipping and haulage etc etc would appear. All these things are made using mammoth amounts of energy: far from achieving massive energy savings, which most plans for a renewables future rely on implicitly, we would wind up needing far more energy, which would mean even more vast renewables farms – and even more materials and energy to make and maintain them and so on. The scale of the building would be like nothing ever attempted by the human race.”

I must say I’m personally surprised at the conclusion of this study. I genuinely thought that we were maybe a few solar innovations and battery technology breakthroughs away from truly viable solar power. But if this study is to be believed, solar and other renewables will never in the foreseeable future deliver meaningful amounts of energy.

 

Fusion Power Within A Decade?

I have to admit I am somewhat sceptical about the timeline of an operational fusion plant within ten years but, if true, this has the capacity to transform the world with cheap, non-polluting energy within decades.

From businessinsider.com:

LOCKHEED: We Made A Huge Breakthrough In Nuclear Fusion

sunNASA/Solar Dynamics ObservatoryNuclear fusion is the energy that powers stars.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Lockheed Martin Corp said on Wednesday it had made a technological breakthrough in developing a power source based on nuclear fusion, and the first reactors, small enough to fit on the back of a truck, could be ready for use in a decade.

Tom McGuire, who heads the project, said he and a small team had been working on fusion energy at Lockheed‘s secretive Skunk Works for about four years, but were now going public to find potential partners in industry and government for their work.

Initial work demonstrated the feasibility of building a 100-megawatt reactor measuring seven feet by 10 feet, which could fit on the back of a large truck, and is about 10 times smaller than current reactors, McGuire told reporters.

In a statement, the company, the Pentagon’s largest supplier, said it would build and test a compact fusion reactor in less than a year, and build a prototype in five years.

In recent years, Lockheed has gotten increasingly involved in a variety of alternate energy projects, including several ocean energy projects, as it looks to offset a decline in U.S. and European military spending.

Lockheed‘s work on fusion energy could help in developing new power sources amid increasing global conflicts over energy, and as projections show there will be a 40 percent to 50 percent increase in energy use over the next generation, McGuire said.

If it proves feasible, Lockheed‘s work would mark a key breakthrough in a field that scientists have long eyed as promising, but which has not yet yielded viable power systems. The effort seeks to harness the energy released during nuclear fusion, when atoms combine into more stable forms.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/andrea-shalal-lockheed-nuclear-fusion-breakthrough-2014-10#ixzz3IzNACGN6

New Temperature Records- It’s Hotter Than We Thought!

How bizarre- the Bureau of Meteorology has adjusted Australia’s temperature records to exaggerate the warming trend of the last century. The next time the media tell us it’s a record high temperature or an angry summer you might need to ask, “What does that even mean?”

From Jo Nova:

Australian summer maximums “warmed” by 200%

Which causes more summer heatwaves: carbon dioxide or Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) adjustments?

Ken Stewart has analyzed the adjustments used to create the all-new ACORN wonder dataset and compared them with another BOM dataset called AWAP, and finds, extraordinarily, that the trend in average summer maximums has been tripled by adjustments that the BOM imply are neutral.

Since summer maxima are the ones used to generate the most headlines in Australia, I ask again if the Bureau of Meteorology is a scientific agency or a PR group?  Increasing the trend in summer maxima would produce more headlines of hottest ever month, season, heatwave, and weekend.

In this graph Stewart splits the data into months, and compares the trends in maxima in the AWAP and ACORN datasets, across the entire nation. We see that most of the adjustments happen to data from the hottest months of the year, October to March. Even though the measured maxima in February and March are possibly cooler now than they were in the early 1900s, they have been adjusted to show warming trends.

When was the last time you heard the BOM tell you that their “hottest ever” February record depended on adjusting down the past hotter records?

Full story: Australian summer maximums “warmed” by 200% « JoNova.

The Pause Grows Up

It’s official- the pause in global warming is now 18 years old- which means that people graduating from High School about now have never experienced global warming. So what happened to that catastrophic warming we keep hearing aobut?

From Watts Up With That?

It’s official: no global warming for 18 years 1 month

Global Temperature Update By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

The RSS monthly satellite global temperature anomaly for September 2014 is in, and the Great Pause is now two months longer than it was last month. Would this year’s el Niño bite soon enough to stop the psychologically-significant 18-year threshold from being crossed? The official answer is No.

Globally, September was scarcely warmer than August, which was itself some distance below the 18-year trend-line. Therefore, taking the least-squares linear-regression trend on the RSS satellite monthly global mean surface temperature anomalies, there has now been no global warming for 18 years 1 month.

Dr Benny Peiser, our good friend at the Global Warming Policy Foundation in the UK, had anticipated the official crossing of the 18-year threshold by a day or two with an interesting note circulated to supporters on the ever-lengthening period without any global warming, and featuring our 17-years-11-months graph from last month.

The Great Pause is the longest continuous period without any warming in the global instrumental temperature record since the satellites first watched in 1979. It has endured for a little over half the satellite temperature record. Yet the Pause coincides with a continuing, rapid increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration.

clip_image002

Figure 1. RSS monthly global mean lower-troposphere temperature anomalies (dark blue) and trend (thick bright blue line), September 1996 to September 2014, showing no trend for 18 years 1 month.

The hiatus period of 18 years 1 month, or 217 months, is the farthest back one can go in the RSS satellite temperature record and still show a sub-zero trend.

 

Full story

“No Extreme Weather” Say Insurance Companies

One of the mantras of climate change activists is that there will be more extreme weather events such as hurricanes and cyclones. “In fast we are seeing it now” they often add earnestly, despite the fact that both the U.S. and Australia have recorded below average storm intensities and frequency on the last decade.

Insurance companies, who stand to lose trillions if they get this wrong, are also saying there has been no change in their business plans.

From WUWT:

Insurance companies not seeing effects from posited ‘climate change’ spawned weather disasters

 

Lack of major disasters gets Lloyd’s of London back in profit –

disastercollage

WUWT reader “jimbo” writes in Tips and Notes: We often hear how climate disasters / extreme weather events are getting worse. We know there is no evidence and sometimes the opposite is seen. Now let’s look at the insurance industry. Surely they could tell us that things are indeed getting worse than we thought!

Surely Warren Buffett has an eye for increasing premiums in the face of extreme weather events?

CNBC – 3 March 2014
No climate change impact on insurance biz: Buffett
The effects of climate change, “if any,” have not affected the insurance market, billionaire Warren Buffett told CNBC on Monday—adding he’s not calculating the probabilities of catastrophes any differently.

While the question of climate change “deserves lots of attention,” Buffett said in a “Squawk Box” interview, “It has no effect … [on] the prices we’re charging this year versus five years ago. And I don’t think it’ll have an effect on what we’re charging three years or five years from now.” He added, “That may change ten years from now.”………

Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway owns several insurance and reinsurance interests—including Geico and General Reinsurance—and often has to pay significant claims when natural disasters strike.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101460458

What about Lloyd’s of London?

Reuters – 25 September 2014
….But Lloyd’s combined ratio, a measure of profitability showing how much insurance premium is paid out in claims and expenses, deteriorated to 88.2 percent from 86.9 percent. A ratio below 100 percent indicates an underwriting profit. “It’s been a fairly benign period for major catastrophes,” Parry said.

Insurance underwriters tend to perform less well in the absence of major catastrophes, as insurance premiums fall…..

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/09/25/uk-lloydsoflondon-results-idUKKCN0HK0ML20140925

See also:

Lack of major disasters gets Lloyd’s of London back in profit

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-2209103/Lack-major-disasters-gets-Lloyds-London-profit.html

Scientists- Humans Not Responsible For Warming On West Coast of U.S.

I wonder how many of these studies will start to emerge over the next few years- and how many will be reported by the ABC.

From Watts Up With That

Surprising PNAS paper: CO2 emissions not the cause of U.S. West Coast warming

pdo warm and cold phases

The rise in temperatures along the U.S. West Coast during the past century is almost entirely the result of natural forces — not human emissions of greenhouse gases, according to a major new study released today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Northeast Pacific coastal warming since 1900 is often ascribed to anthropogenic greenhouse forcing, whereas multidecadal temperature changes are widely interpreted in the framework of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which responds to regional atmospheric dynamics. This study uses several independent data sources to demonstrate that century-long warming around the northeast Pacific margins, like multidecadal variability, can be primarily attributed to changes in atmospheric circulation. It presents a significant reinterpretation of the region’s recent climate change origins, showing that atmospheric conditions have changed substantially over the last century, that these changes are not likely related to historical anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing, and that dynamical mechanisms of interannual and multidecadal temperature variability can also apply to observed century-long trends.

Full article here